63 Comments
User's avatar
Jeff Tozzer's avatar

Commissioner Mike French did reply to yesterday's email:

"Just to provide some additional context:

We have a scheduling conflict every month when Commissioner Johnson attends the Board of Natural Resources meeting in Olympia. My understanding is he generally attends that meeting in person, and it's nearly an all-day meeting. This same situation happened a few years back when Commissioner Peach served on the Board of Natural Resources. I think it's worth the scheduling trouble it causes to have a Clallam County Commissioner representing Washington Counties and junior taxing district interests at the Board of Natural Resources.

Occasionally, one of the other two Commissioners is traveling when that conflict occurs, and we've had a quorum with one Commissioner in person and one Commissioner attending virtually. We decided to cancel meetings this one time, and I believe Todd gave you a full explanation of why. As the Chair of the Board of Commissioners, I was asked about this idea a few weeks back and agreed to it, and I stand by that decision.

I will still be working this week, attending County committee meetings (presenting at one), attending virtual meetings, going out to community meetings in both Forks and Clallam Bay, and appearing on two radio shows.

Mike French

Clallam County Commissioner"

The response is appreciated. However, despite Commissioner Johnson's standing scheduling conflict, he does not miss commissioner meetings once a month. Yes, Commissioner French will be attending to county business. He will also be attending the OlyCAP anniversary and Peninsula Behavioral Health Gala.

Here is today's question to the commissioners:

Dear Commissioners,

When individuals with significant criminal histories relocate here and reoffend, the costs—law enforcement, courts, jail, healthcare—fall on local taxpayers.

How are you accounting for that burden, and what steps are you taking to prevent Clallam County from absorbing disproportionate costs created elsewhere?

MK's avatar
May 5Edited

Thank you David for working with Mike to see the problems from another perspective, and closer to the reality not easily observable for most who don't take time to see what's going on. Thank you Mike for taking the time to have David show you around.

Your experience is mine whenever I've had conversation with Jake and Mike's name comes up. Very respectful, but honest. Jake is genuinely interested in a balanced approach, and it in no way is a "one of them" approach. Everyone who posts here has a variety of perspectives, and some are hardened like mine, but I will always acknowledge that I'm willing to accept a more balanced approach that I've heard Jake talk about vs the current methodology. I am not like Jake, nor is he like me, and no one who comments here is like either of us. This painting people who voice their opinions as being similar is a disservice to our opinions, even if they have similarities.

I've seen addiction first-hand for years, with professional boots on the ground, to know bad policy when I see it, and it is here. I've seen more videos of those who have recovered and become contributing members of society again in this fentanyl addicted era who clearly describe the acceptance and promotion of use as the biggest sin man can do to those in the throws of this problem.

Humanity and biology demand that we modify our approach. There's pain in the journey, there's glory in the end.

To imagine a parent would enable their children's bad behavior so that they never aspire to be something greater and contributing members of society is abuse. To any parent who has seen their children's break throughs and the glory of success because they didn't enable or accept the bad behavior you know that those difficult times were worth it. Society thanks you for doing the hard work.

So why is it we don't understand that concept with adults especially in light of the repeated success stories? How is it that we treat our children better than others?

It's a moral and societal sin going on to encourage this destructive behavior. The "devil" is in the money that is involved that has corrupted the thinking through hocus pocus gibberish that on paper sounds good.

We all innately know better. So why are we here? If we have a goal to bring people out of addiction then why does society accept methods that are diametrically opposed to them?

As a citizen I too demand my own hope for those who are addicted, that I too can rejoice in their having made something more of themselves and realized that the only person who can make the change is them, and that is a more powerful drug than fentanyl.

So there it is, my hardass "them" position. Why is it wrong?

Jake gives me hope because he is not like me. He has more true compassion than I have seen in a long time. Why would I vote for someone who has no vision and is hamstrung by a lack of vision and hope for their fellow man? Why would you? Jake is my Wedge from this madness. My vote goes to him.

Evrita Romero's avatar

Good morning MK,

I for one was surprised and happy that Mr. French did the walkabout. The us versus them ideology is a big problem. That’s what divides us, that type of thinking. They just don’t seem to understand that the harm reduction is not helping anything, as far as the apartment complex there has to be clear guidelines and rules set maybe with a time limit say 60-90 days depending on their particular case so others transitioning into sobriety can take advantage of the services therefore, helping more people.

Now, as far as these criminals that keep coming here moving in and out of the system being let go I’ll say it again they need to be extradited out of here or be trespassed from staying here. I do believe French was slightly about running to a small town however as you said before MK if law-enforcement hands are tied, the prosecutors don’t prosecute them or try to, and the judge let them go will never solve this problem.

I applaud Jake Seegers and his whole campaign, which I am a huge fan of!

Elect Jake Seegers!

Have a wonderful day, everyone

Billy T Wilson's avatar

Of course French is 'talking'. He wants to be on both sides of the issues. Not at all honest just looking to make the audience in front of him believe he is sincere to THEIR issues.

TLL's avatar

VERY VERY well said. that"s why we need a wedge Vote Jake Seegers for a new perspective which should or could create change!

Eric Fehrmann's avatar

Where is it written that GOVERNMENT will provide all necessities of life to ITS citizens? My life, liberty, and pursuit of happiness is not a gift from government, it is a result of the sweat of my brow, and the freedom to pursue my own dreams. GOVERNMENT is there to protect my ability to choose my path not to choose it for me. GOVERNMENTS are elected to protect us from outside interference and from ourselves, not as dictators, rather as servants to secure our liberty to choose our own path. I think that true leaders have the ability to pivot in their beliefs when presented evidence of their current governance failing to protect the liberty of their constituents. I believe we as a society are responsible for throwing a life line to those being dragged under a wave of misfortune, even self-inflicted, and a helping hand up. Not perpetual hand outs.

John Worthington's avatar

Imagine how easy it is to play hide and seek for 3 grand a week with your client all hopped up on goofball in the sticker bushes.

Teresa's avatar

Eric,

you are one example of why I became involved in what the heck is going on.

After witnessing many Public

Comments given by you,

I hear a voice of reason.

God Bless 👍🏼🙏🏼😁💥

Glen Parker's avatar

Good morning Jeff and Doggers,

Mike's problem is he absolutely refuses to see things as they are and how the results from our states bad legislation and Governor. He stands by the political party views and looks after his career versus true representation.

He is a nice guy with political blinders attached. I'm sure he can handle the word Salad clesses in the future once Mark O. moves on to his next destructive post. I hope it's in California...

Thank you Jeff and Doggers y'all have a great one.

Billy T Wilson's avatar

His biggest fault is his inability to change course. He myopically went into a direction (more than once...) and regardless of failure, he will not be honest with us or himself. Most troubling sign of a poor 'leader'.

Michael Heath's avatar

Well done, Patriot Jeff Tozzer~!

While I "could" appreciate Mike French's effort to engage in a "walkabout" Port Angeles so he could see the negative impacts of the/HIS local governments "feel good" policies, I have some very serious questions about it. The "harm reduction" garbage has obviously been facilitating the very problem that it by name supposedly purports to be "reducing", so after well over 10 years is this the first time that anyone in government who has been pushing this madness have bothered to look into the results by walking around town like "we" peasants do? Are Mike French and the others in government somehow blind, deaf, and dumb to the effects of THEIR extremely unpopular forced policies AND also the valid concerns of most of the people who are paying the serious price for those misguided policies? I don't see Mike French's comment that David Rogers is "Different" than the vast majority of concerned citizens here as any compliment at all, even though it was very intentionally framed as if it was. That was a VERY clear vile intentional insult to ALL of the rest of us that was thinly cloaked as a compliment, when it was a VERY serious indictment of the vast majority of the good, concerned folks of Clallam County who have been paying the price of the/HIS failed "harm reduction" policies for more than 10 years~! It was just the typical "blame and shame the/HIS victims" Gaslighting as is always done by these mentally ill political socialist Progressive lunatic thugs~! I seriously doubt that Mike French would have made such a COMPLETELY outrageous comment in that recent meeting, because that would have gone over like the clearly pandering "lead ballon" that it REALLY was! That was only a simple minded "divide and conquer" tactic that is typical of these low mentality scumbags who manipulate, cheat, and steal to get into positions of power that they NEVER deserve and are NOT qualified for. So, I have to wonder if Mike French is coming up for re-election any time soon? That would explain the exceedingly rare, though be it clearly fake, effort to experience the downside of HIS failed policies. Also, did Mike French and David Rogers walk through the many random growing "garbage dumps" that have been created by the homeless drug addicted transients in our community? The report here appears to be of a superficial trot about town with an exchange of pleasantries at best, as opposed to any meaningful investigation into the REAL problem. One can simply drive around town like most of the rest of us to accomplish a much broader & more accurate survey of the damage that the "harm reduction" policies have created. Mike French was simply conducting a PR stunt! What was revealed by this "walkabout" was clearly the deeply ingrained political attitude of the self-proclaimed "elite expert" of fake & phony compassion from Mike French, that also reflected the hatred and disdain of the entire local failed government management criminal cabal, that long ago intentionally chose to condemn the vast majority of folks in Clallam County as selfish and uncaring monsters~! Mike French could walk across the entire country and back, and there is little chance that his deeply sick political insanity of blaming HIS victims will ever change~! Playing nice and trying to get through to these political scumbags is NEVER going to produce a rational meeting of the minds, regardless of how many times the good folks of Clallam County try~! The definition of insanity ALWAYS proves true like all scientific truths, where repeating the same thing hoping for a different outcome NEVER works~! I have seen this exact same game all over the US all of my life, where good folks falsely assume that eventually these political "hit men & hit women" will suddenly come to their senses, but they never will because they are being VERY well supported, well paid & promoted to carry out their evil destructive political agenda against the good American folks and The American Constitution~! Finally, I understand that from this great article, Randy Johnson has conducted his "professional survey" of the Serenity House occupants and concluded that of the 115 residents only 4 were "from out of town"? My compliments to Jeff Tozzer on his good analysis of that statement of Johnson's! However, let us carefully look deeper into that "professional survey" of Randy Johnson's. First, what does "out of town" REALLY mean? That is a BS statement on its face, especially when "we" are discussing the issue of numerous criminals who are migrating here from SO many other states all across the country! HOWEVER, let us flip that same statement of Johnson's to shine the light of truth upon what his "professional survey" would REALLY mean if true! Good God! IF 111 people out of the 115 in Serenity House were REALLY local, born and raised, folks from our community, that would by definition mean that the entire governmental structure of our entire community had SO dramatically failed generations of locals, that they should ALL be removed from office, their entire wealth confiscated, and they should all be imprisoned for life~! If true, with the small population of Port Angeles producing 111 homeless transients with serious and often violent drug addiction issues JUST living in the Serenity House alone, that would be a direct condemnation of all of the parents involved and ESPECIALLY the police, the justice system, and all of the schools, teachers, and administrators in the so-called "educational system"~! Randy Johnson's Gaslighting BS, by default, just confessed to the very failed governmental system "in town" right here, even if you include the Sequim to Port Angeles demographics as "in town"~! No, our local governmental system and the schools have definitely failed many generations of the residents here, but most of these homeless transient drugs addicted and violent folks were NOT born and raised right here in our community! That assertion, even by deductive reasoning, is clearly BS! I am sure that most of the folks here who were actually born and raised here do know that fact because they do not recognize most of these homeless folks as "home grown" or they would be making it very clear that their friends and family of the past were on the streets in numbers and had failed as productive citizens~! These pathological liars and deceivers ALWAYS reveal their lies and the truth at the same time, for those of us who are really paying attention~! Keep up the great work Jeff Tozzer and thanks for the effort, David Rogers~! We are ALL learning and improving by these open dialogs~!

Sincerely, Mike

Susie Blake's avatar

The standard for PIT count is "from here or have connections here." I have also heard "where you lived when you became homeless" which applies if one comes to Clallam via arrest or treatment program then is released or dismissed once here then Voila, homeless "from here."

The stretch back for "from here" has no limits. A male who lived homeless out of state his entire adulthood came "back" via free bus ticket from another state after 20+ years with a felony record for DV assault in front of a child. Moved into Serenity, PBH got him signed up for medicaid and started billing and helped him get new ID with new name and gender maker, obscuring his violent criminal history. Caseworkers help him get WA ABD cash and he uses some of it to pay back child support and court fees in another state! He keeps appealing SSI denial. Gets Food stamps, HEN rent assistance, free clothing from the church, free meals, free hormone therapy from PP, free other meds on WA medicaid, can afford weed and time to get high on the waterfront every day but milking the "disabilty" system and about to get plastic surgery paid for by WA medicaid as gender affirming care.

Someone like this scores very high on the rubric used locally to rate urgency, thus jumps the housing waitlist and is enjoying living in a PA PBH home with only one other resident and awaiting his move to the new place.

But sure, technically "from here" and at the expense of taxpayers he is here living free and easy.

Michael Heath's avatar

OUCH~!!!

I just pulled a groin muscle trying to keep up with that evil socialistic nightmare of verbal gymnastics that you so well recited~! GOOD GOD~! Now I have a serious physical disability myself~! Geeeeeze~! Talk about "gaming the system" these so-called "caring social workers" must be more capable of committing and enabling crimes, than Al Capone ever was~! That is an absolutely astounding story my friend. I am guessing that the Individual in question has SO many devastatingly serious mental issues and physical handicaps that perhaps he should receive "free room and board" in a mental institution. Smoking pot may be the ONLY thing keeping him alive at this point~! Ironically, I would not be all that surprised if he ran for public office, because I am sure that the lunatic Progressive socialists would all vote for him/her/it/them out of a pity vote. HA! Given the twisted insane clowns already in our local government, I would not even be surprised if this Individual may be more qualified than a LOT of the criminals that we already have in office~! HA~! Well, when I picked up Randy Johnson's "out of town" red flag of witchcraft doublespeak, I knew damn well that there was something deeply fishy about the way he framed his remark, but you revealed an entirely new depth to the pit of Hell that our Washington State has truly descended into, Patriot Susie Blake~! This is EXACTLY what ALL Americans are starting to do more & more now, because good folks have had more than enough of the total BS system that the criminals in government have devised. I am a natural born optimist who loves America and even though I often wonder what it will be like in America 100 years from now, I am now unsure if I even want to know after reading your description of this Sicko and the even more insane criminals in government that it obviously took to devise such a horrifically bizarre evil system~! I hope that you know that if anyone ever attempted to write a book or movie script describing this Individuals twisted trip of a so-called "life" that it would have to be a comedy because no one would ever believe it~! Have a mellow evening and may God save us all~!

Sincerely, Mike

Billy T Wilson's avatar

Hi, I'm homeless, a felon... I hear you're building 350,000 units for us. I won't change. I will hurt people either directly by assault or break into their homes. I will hurt your children and wives if I get a chance. Thank you for the home you are buiilding for me.

Billy T Wilson's avatar

Oh yeah. Vote Fr3nch.

Susie Blake's avatar

Just a reminder French served on PA council Jan 2018 until Jan 2023 when he took his county role. There is no reason for him to not already be painfully aware, like the rest of us, of the conditions in our creeks and forests as well as in town. He also chairs board of health and should be well informed on the various valid concerns with local harm reduction application and how other progressive west coast cities are dramatically changing their harm reduction approach. As board of health chair he should be taking the lead on adressing the drug camp the 3rd st health dept hosts in their parking lot on weekends, to the demise of central Port Angeles. There have been many complaints sent to both city and county and I am sure French is in close communication with PA council when it serves him.

I have met Rogers in person at his business and had a good chat with him at a recent event for Jake. We agree on the need to improve conditions for the next generation. I appreciate that as a county resident he is also adressing city issues with our electeds.

I don't know Zelenka but have been reading his Substack and he makes some excellent analogies about our core problems.

Appreciation for fellow community members trying to communicate with electeds aside- how many moms and grandmas have made public comment in front of French at both city and county level and written many emails incuding in the past year to be completely ignored or rudely dismissed by French? How many with lived experience are treated with disdain by Mike and the other comissioners because of assumptions they make about partisanship if you question anything on their agenda?

French knows what is happening in our public spaces. He is selectively responding and engaging with those he sees as having ability to help his campaign via their public influence.

From one casual in person meeting with Jake, I have seen more subsequent action to indicate he actually heard my concerns and was seeking to learn and make a positive impact than I got out of 5 years of trying to communicate with French. That alone earns my vote, knowing if he wins or not he will keep working for the community.

SC's avatar

https://scli1223.substack.com/p/beyond-impact-2-things-can-be-true?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=4frcvu

Sometimes there are 2 truths co- existing at the same time. Would it be wild to believe that individuals come here both for it's remote settings as well as our generous services? I wrote the above article to shine some light on a few of the other co- existing truths.

Thanks for your article today Mr. Tozzer!

Jeff Tozzer's avatar

Your article is very impactful, and I encourage everyone to read it.

Denise Lapio's avatar

Thank you, Jeff, for getting the info out about the events in CC. These local and out-of-town offenders keep building into a larger plan to corrupt our beautiful county and its people. It's good to be back home, and I look forward to getting back in the groove.

Jeff Tozzer's avatar

Welcome home!

UFOCCWD's avatar

At this point i would not trust board commissioner's answers to any questions.I do not khow how anyone could trust elected people that do not want to be transparent,that have lied in the past,that are being compromised by high end state elected-tribes-NGO's ect ect ect.

David Zelenka's avatar

To Mike French's credit, he walked with me up Tumwater after the Public Safety Town Hall. I wrote about that recently without naming him. We agreed on more than might be expected, including the most important thing, which is that these are people in the flesh, to be loved.

Where we differed was what to do about it. I won't speak for him directly. What I will say is that toxic compassion is real, and it is regularly exploited by the kind of administrative creep I keep writing about. The compassion is genuine. The exploitation of it is the problem. And we also are impacted by Olympia in ways they don't have a clue about.

I have been writing practical solutions because the problems in this county are pervasive and the Managers consistently make decisions that make them worse. I do not think French sees that part clearly yet. Yesterday's piece addresses it directly: Why the Overseer Always Overreaches - And How to Fix It

https://davidzelenka.substack.com/p/why-the-overseer-always-overreaches

Ken's avatar

Visibility. To seek re-election. Next step shaking hands and kissing babies. Same ol same ol.

David Zelenka's avatar

I'm a nobody and I asked him to go on the walk.

Time is not on his side. Zeitgeist has shifted. Clallam County Watchdog and others like this are the new media. Now if we can just get rid of mail-in voting.

Susie Blake's avatar

But you have a strong voice and a very well written Substack that has been gaining visibilty and he is smart enough to see that. I've lost track of the number of my emails he has completely ignored.

John Worthington's avatar

He can' see the problem clearly Mike is not a nincompoop. His party line won't let him speak badly about the problem. He has to go along to get along. They hung the Mayor of Burien's head on a stick for going against policy. They have determined they would rather pay PBH rather than the justice system. But

I say the PBH has to take responsibility for their policy. As in if their out patient clients are the ones throwing garbage all over it should come out of their bloated salaries. Watch how fast they find a place for them with a dumpster and Snake Pliskin to give them a kick in the ass.

Enabling is now a living wage job in the blue pages... 220 thou a year at the top and a half a million in payroll as a whole. With that kind of money they should be sending 4PA a check in the mail for cleaning up their failed enabling PBH outpatient model, not asking for property owners to pay for it.

John Worthington's avatar

AI :Yes. Instead of seeking a final court ruling, King County used non‑litigation leverage: public statements criticizing the ordinance, withholding or conditioning county services/payments, contract enforcement with the Sheriff’s Office (refusing to carry out enforcement deemed unlawful), personnel actions/expressions of no confidence by contracted deputies, and negotiated settlements or administrative oversight to block or blunt Burien’s enforcement efforts.

This is what Mike is up against. Leveraging. A poor county that already gets a dollar twenty five for every twenty five cents it pays into the general fund, has to go along to get along just to stay on Pugetropolis' payroll. Ozias has already said we are their park. Confirmed by Senator Hargrove when he was still a legislator.

John Worthington's avatar

Here’s a concise explanation of the “last known residence” rule and how it’s used with people experiencing homelessness:

Definition: The “last known residence” rule treats a person as a resident of the last place they had a legal residence (often a city, county, or state) for purposes like determining eligibility for services, shelter placement, or which jurisdiction has responsibility for providing housing or conducting outreach.

Someone Someone's avatar

Out of towners who had a Section 8 voucher and were holed up in the Aircrest for a period of time are considered PA residents, just great.

John Worthington's avatar

No just "clients"...They don't ask "where were you born" or "where was your last known residence." You know its an epidemic. They get federal funding based on bodies...

Susie Blake's avatar

out of towners from all over the country can be and are on Clallam county waitlists

John Worthington's avatar

They don't want to apply the “last known residence” rule, because the out of towners feed the cogs and wheels of the PBH.

David Zelenka's avatar

May not be a nincompoop, but the mind-virus is pervasive. Yes. We need accountability and justice. I still expect justice from covid-era nonsense/insanity.

CAS's avatar

The word “compassion” in our county’s public policy discussions, particularly around addiction, homelessness, and publicly funded service programs is tossed around by “leaders” as though that is the end all.

The term is used frequently, and it is used in a way that sounds morally reassuring. Many residents hear the word “compassion” and assume that what we are doing is effective, humane, and producing real change. But when you look beyond the language and examine the outcomes, what we see is not compassion — it is a revolving door.

During my career in law enforcement and in my work in another state, I had boots on the ground experience with individuals struggling with severe addiction. I saw firsthand that the only approach with consistent success was removing people from the street environment, separating them from the drug using networks that pull them back in, and placing them in long term residential treatment. Recovery requires distance from triggers, structure, and time. Without that, even individuals who were doing well would relapse after a single contact with an old using friend. That is not a theory — it is a pattern.

In our county we continue to rely heavily on grant funded programs that keep people cycling through the same system without meaningful change. Grant funding can be valuable, but when the funding model rewards the continuation of the problem rather than its resolution, the incentives become misaligned. Programs expand, budgets grow and grow, more staff added and programs that don’t have real meaningful metrics. What should be the major objective is not met as the number of people stabilized or restored to health rarely gets met.

Calling this “compassion” does not make it effective. Reviving the same person repeatedly while offering no path out is not compassion. Watching individuals deteriorate neurologically from repeated overdoses is not compassion. Allowing people to remain in the same environment that fuels their addiction is not compassion. It is slow, predictable harm.

In another county where I worked, leaders used grant funding to create long term residential treatment — and the results were measurable (and they were not 350K units). People got better. They stayed better. The community saw improvements. It required political will, accountability, and a commitment to outcomes, not optics.

Clallam County residents deserve the same. We deserve programs that are evaluated on results, not rhetoric. We deserve transparency about what is working and what is not. And we deserve leadership willing to support approaches that actually save lives, even when those approaches require structure, boundaries, and difficult decisions.

Our community cannot afford to confuse enabling with mercy, or stagnation with care. True compassion requires action that leads to stability, safety, and long term health — not the continuation of a cycle that everyone can see is failing.

MK's avatar

Wow! Great detail here with actual results. Bizarre how we can't get a wedge into this local mindset. How do we highlight this model and get more details to our elected officials?

CAS's avatar

It certainly was not rocket science, folks there believed it could be done. The grant funds were used to retain shelters with numerous beds and became residential treatment facilities. It worked. Harm reduction was not advertised like it is here. People really cared and the grants for staff funding was at a minumum with most of the funding going towards actually helping people. I find it so appalling to see what is happening here when it does not have to be this way. IMO, this will continue until we have new leadership and it starts this year, then next year and the following, we can make it happen, it takes a village.

Ken's avatar

“I’m gunna go where the sun don’t shine, as far West as I can and no one will know my name.” Imagine that.

Sitting in a jail cell twiddling your thumbs, waiting on low-bail release, staring at a map of the USA and your trigger finger lands on Clallam County. Right about there, in the Northwest corner of Washington. Hmm? What’s available? Weed, wine and women. Land to squat on and use freely my free paraphernalia, a food bank, maybe get some grant money, build a lean-to shelter, lather at the public pool, and support the local pusher man economy. And if I get hooked, seek treatment for a free hit or two, then after two weeks and low morale give up on the treatment options. Personal accountability sucks.

Would this be fiction or reality? A cartoon? A Chamber of Commerce video? A meme?

Sarah Kincaid's avatar

Permanent transitional housing is an oxymoron. It is either one or the other, it can't be both.

Susie Blake's avatar

It's permanent supportive OR transitional, not both. but there are games being played by nonprofits with the labeling to try to bypass federal funding changes

John Worthington's avatar

Washington passed SB 5815 (enacted 2022, effective Jan 1, 2023) creating a one‑time no‑cost state ID for people experiencing homelessness; Department of Licensing guidance describes processes to obtain IDs without prior WA ID and options for mailing/pickup.

The Columbian

End around last known residence law...

John Worthington's avatar

But there is no voter fraud....

KX's avatar

Your right!

KX's avatar

Thanks for this info! Good grief!

Powdermonkey's avatar

What keeps getting lost in these conversations is scale. A handful of arrest reports about a handful of people is not a trend. It’s a scrapbook. If someone wants to argue that Clallam County is being overrun by outsider criminals, they need a dataset that tracks residency for every arrest. That dataset doesn’t exist. And if you can’t measure something at the population level, you can’t call it a trend unless you’re writing fiction.

If this were real, it would show up in the data we do have. Rising crime rates, shifting case types, something with numbers attached. We don’t see that. What we see is a lot of storytelling with a spreadsheet shaped hole in the middle.

Individual case files will always show that some people have lived or offended in multiple places. That’s normal. Career criminals travel more than most retirees. But knowing the biography of a few individuals is not the same as having population level evidence. Anecdotes don’t scale. They barely even stack.

What does scale is the difference between visibility and frequency. When people are outside and struggling, complaints go up because suffering is more visible, not because crime is necessarily increasing. Visibility feels like a surge even when the numbers are flat. It’s the civic version of thinking your house is haunted because the lights flicker.

There’s also a basic statistical reality here. Most residents in places like Clallam County are from somewhere else. When the majority of the population is imported, a share of offenders will be too. That’s not a trend. That’s math. Correlation is not causation, and it certainly isn’t evidence of a policy driven magnet effect.

If we’re going to talk about crime trends, we should start with actual numbers. Clallam County’s 2022 crime rate was 5,034 per 100,000, well below Washington’s 7,158. That’s not what an imported crime wave looks like. That’s what below average looks like. If this is a crisis, it’s a very polite one. And before anyone asks about 2023, 2024, or 2025, Washington’s crime data runs on an eighteen to twenty four month delay. The state hasn’t released those years yet. If someone claims to know the trend before the state does, they’re not using data.

Now, about the claim that supportive housing attracts crime. This is where the “there’s no data” argument collapses under its own weight, because there is data. Mountains of it. And it’s not coming from advocacy blogs or campaign mailers. It’s coming from nonpartisan, peer reviewed research and policy institutes that have been studying this for years.

And the findings are boringly consistent.

In Denver’s Supportive Housing Social Impact Bond program, participants had thirty four percent fewer police contacts and forty percent fewer arrests than people receiving traditional services. In Columbus, Ohio, a study of five supportive housing sites found no increase in neighborhood crime. In some cases, nearby blocks without housing had higher rates. Across multiple interim housing programs, including work by DignityMoves, calls for drug possession, property crime, and assault decreased at most sites after people moved indoors. A review of more than twenty studies on supervised consumption sites, including work tied to the National Institutes of Health, found no increase in crime or public nuisance, and in several cases, declines. If supportive housing were a crime magnet, researchers would have found at least one city where crime went up. They didn’t. The magnet theory has the same scientific credibility as Bigfoot.

Since we’re apparently required to relitigate harm reduction every few months, here is the part that never makes it into the outrage posts. Harm reduction is not coddling. It is basic public health. The research is not ambiguous. Programs that provide clean supplies, overdose prevention, and low barrier contact points reduce deaths, reduce disease transmission, and increase the odds that people eventually enter treatment. They also reduce the kind of street level chaos that everyone claims to hate. The idea that withholding help will somehow force people into better choices has been tested for fifty years and has never worked. It is the public policy equivalent of refusing to put out a kitchen fire because you disapprove of the recipe.

The magnet idea survives because it flips cause and effect. Services don’t create these problems. They show up where the problems already are. When an economy hollows out, businesses close, and foot traffic disappears, you create space for disorder. Fewer people means fewer eyes. Legitimate activity pushes out illegitimate activity, not the other way around. That’s how cities work whether we like it or not.

The same upside down logic shows up in the housing conversation. The three hundred fifty thousand dollar per unit number people keep waving around like it’s proof of extravagance is normal. That’s what basic multifamily construction costs in Washington now. Local fees alone can tack on thousands per unit before construction even starts. That’s not luxury. That’s the cover charge.

And the fixation on dishwashers and dog wash stations is where the whole argument wanders off into a time capsule. These aren’t luxury perks. They’re standard features that reduce turnover and maintenance costs. The outrage seems to come from the idea that if you didn’t have it in 1978, no one should have it now. That’s a charming way to run a museum but a terrible way to run a housing policy.

As for the claim that supportive housing sets people up to fail when they face the real world, that assumes a pipeline that doesn’t exist. Most people don’t exit into some distant, high cost market. They stay local. And stabilization isn’t a luxury. It’s the starting line. It’s very hard to hold a job, manage health issues, or rebuild stability from a tent. Deciding not to help people now because they might struggle later isn’t pragmatism. It’s surrender with better branding.

If we’re going to talk about root causes, they’re not mysterious and they’re not imported. They’re structural. Housing shortages, rising costs, gaps in treatment, and local economic shifts that reduce stability and opportunity. Those are the patterns that show up consistently in the data, not a wave of people relocating here to commit crimes like it’s a seasonal job.

Housing availability, affordability, and quality are three separate failures, and supportive housing exists because all three have been ignored for decades. It didn’t create the problem. It’s filling the gap left by a market that doesn’t serve the bottom.

As for the obvious complaint that this is long winded, complex problems have a bad habit of being that way. They also refuse to fit on bumper stickers. If we’re not willing to get into the weeds, we’re not trying to solve anything. We’re just guessing. And misdiagnosing a problem because you stopped at the headline isn’t pragmatism. It’s malpractice. The point isn’t to drown anyone in detail. It’s to ask better questions so we stop prescribing the wrong solutions to the wrong diagnoses, and to stop pretending we haven’t already tried the Watchdogs preferred quick fixes and watched them fail in real time.

If people want a real conversation about solutions, great. But that conversation has to start with evidence, not anecdotes, and with explanations that move forward from causes to effects, not backward from assumptions to conclusions